Stockmarketscience covers Short, Intermediate and Long Term investments in the US stock market. Roughly, Short-term is a couple weeks, Intermediate-term (IT) is a couple months, and Long-term covers periods of years. Our Daily columns are largely for the Field Short-Term rule-based stock index trading System (Long-term and IT Systems discussed next paragraph). The time horizon between trades is about one-two weeks. A Summary_Table of the performance of the System versus the S&P500 average for the last sixteen years shows that the Short-Term System BEATS the S&P by 3.7% per year on average (11.5% total average annual gain). The Table also shows that in BEAR markets (such as 9/00 to 4/03) the System does MUCH better than the S&P. The S&P is an un-managed basket of securities weighted by market capitalization, and is a common benchmark for system performance (trademark notices bottom of this page). We have also the Hybrid System, which is: use of the Short-Term System in BULL markets and the Long-Term System (see next paragraph) in BEAR markets. This System returns about 13.0% per year average over the most recent sixteen year period with only three losing year. (Hybrid page updated 12/31/09).

Long-term and Intermediate-term investments are discussed every Friday in these columns. Also please see our page for the Field Long-Term System. It shows a time-weighted average return of 15.5% annually over the most recent 26 year period (ending 1/31/08-end of last bull market) versus 9.8% annually for a buy-and-hold strategy, and poorer returns for buy-and-hold for shorter periods. For additional information about the Systems please see the About page (also has a mug shot of the old man). We also now have a Financial Planning Page as a beginning approach to this important subject.

Please see near the end of this page for LINKS to other pages.

DAILIES: Dear Readers:

9-2-10  The S&P continued its smart rise, closing up by 10 at 1090. We are now out of all Intermediate and Long-term positions. BEAR Market (100%) was declared on 8/31/10. The S&P closed the month below the 9 month moving average of S&P and below the bogey of 10 months ago (1095.6), so now both the 40 week and 9 month MA have turned down, which fulfill all the criteria for a 100% BEAR market. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term purposes. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State PLUNGE (since 8/31/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a SELL signal 8/26/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1081; the IT bogey is at 1092. We are above the 50DMA but below bogey, so the 50DMA continues down. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/31/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +2273 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  +210  to +777. We dropped a -558 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

9-1-10  An astounding rally, the S&P closed up by 31 at 1080. Yesterday's short-term buy looking good. Dont expect this to last long. We are now out of  Intermediate and Long-term positions. BEAR Market (100%) was declared on 8/31/10. The S&P closed the month below the 9 month moving average of S&P and below the bogey of 10 months ago (1095.6), so now both the 40 week and 9 month MA have turned down, which fulfill all the criteria for a 100% BEAR market. You should have sold all stocks held for Long-term purposes. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State PLUNGE (since 8/31/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a SELL signal 8/26/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1081; the IT bogey is at 1095. We are below (barely) the 50DMA and the bogey, so the 50DMA continues down. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/31/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1097 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  +22  to +210. We dropped a +157 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-31-10  The S&P closed up a fraction at 1049. BEAR Market 100% declared today. Short-term BUY signal today; Market State slips to PLUNGE (see next paragraph). We are now out of  Intermediate and Long-term positions. BEAR Market (100%) was declared on 8/31/10. The S&P closed the month below the 9 month moving average of S&P and below the bogey of 10 months ago (1095.6), so now both the 40 week and 9 month MA have turned down, which fulfill all the criteria for a 100% BEAR market. You should sell all stocks held for Long-term purposes. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State PLUNGE (since 8/31/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a SELL signal 8/26/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1082; the IT bogey is at 1113. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the 50DMA continues down. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/31/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +283 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  -206  to +22. We dropped a -859 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 12% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the third BUY signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. Three BUY signals in a row without a sell signal drops the Market State to PLUNGE. This changes the 5DMA thresholds at which buy and sell signals are given. The 100% BEAR Market, the Short-term BUY and the PLUNGE  have been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-30-10  The S&P reversed Friday's gain, down by 16 to 1049. We are now out of  Intermediate and 50% of Long-term positions. BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/20/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/26/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a SELL signal 8/26/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1083; the IT bogey is at 1118. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the 50DMA continues down. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/27/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -696 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  -123  to -206. We dropped a -281 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-27-10  The S&P  closed up smartly by 17 to 1065. Short-term BUY Signal today (see next paragraph). We are now out of  Intermediate and Long-term positions. BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/20/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/26/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a SELL signal 8/26/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1084; the IT bogey is at 1116. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the 50DMA continues down. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/27/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +925 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  -402  to -123. We dropped a -469 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second BUY signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned down, thus cancelling the 50% BULL market and giving a 50% BEAR Market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA).  If the S&P is below the 9MMA and the 9MMA line turns down at the end of August, we will have a 100% BEAR market. The bogey for August is 1095.6, if we close August below that, the 9MMA will turn down.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1091 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned down. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 9/3 the bogey is 1092, which we are now  below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the 8/2/10-8/20/10 50% BULL market was -4.5% The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1074 for the coming week. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 8/20/10, resulting in a loss of 1% for the period 8/17/10-8/20/10. The result for  the IT (new System) for the CY  is -4%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +3.6%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -4.5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-26-10  The S&P reversed and closed down by 8 to 1047. Market State drops to Oscillatory (see next paragraph). We are now out of  Intermediate and Long-term positions. BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/20/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 8/26/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a SELL signal 8/26/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1085; the IT bogey is at 1115. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the 50DMA continues down. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/25/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -558 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours]  from  -470  to -402. We dropped a -899 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline of S&P by 1.5 points below the buy bogey of 1051.9 set on 8/24/10, busts the buy signal of 8/25/10. This drops the Market State to Oscillatory, but we do not sell what we bought on 8/25. This change has been noted on the Market State page . Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-25-10   The S&P was down, then closed up by 4 to 1055; this is called a bottom reversal. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  We are now out of  Intermediate and Long-term positions. BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/20/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a SELL signal 8/20/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1087; the IT bogey is at 1115. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the 50DMA continues down. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/25/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +157 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from  -451  to -470. We dropped a +252 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. [We dont undo signals changed after hours; this usually proves to be best.] Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-24-10  The S&P was down hard all day, closing lower by 16 to 1052. We are now out of all positions (Short, Intermediate and Long-term). BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/20/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a SELL signal 8/20/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1088; the IT bogey is at 1090. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the 50DMA continues down. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/19/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -859 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  -148  to -451. We dropped a +658 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-23-10  The S&P slipped lower again today by 4 to 1067. We are now out of all positions (Short, Intermediate and Long-term). BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/20/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a SELL signal 8/20/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1089; the IT bogey is at 1092. We are below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the 50DMA continues down. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/19/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -281 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  -86  to -148. We dropped a +30 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-20-10  The S&P  moving lower again today by 4 to 1072. Intermediate and Long-term SELL signals today. BEAR Market (50%) was declared on 8/20/10 (see 2nd paragraph down). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10). The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% SELL signal 8/20/10-getting us completely out of IT positions. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1089; the IT bogey is at 1087. We are now below the 50DMA and the bogey, so the 50DMA has turned down. Thus we get an IT SELL signal; thank goodness for the 50% rule. When we first get an IT BUY signal we buy with only 50% of available IT funds against just such an eventuality. This rule has served us well recently. Likewise the 50% rule for the Long-term system. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/19/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -469 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  +110  to -86. We dropped a -238 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The Market State page has been updated for the IT and BEAR markets signals. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, and the 200 DMA has turned down, thus cancelling the 50% BULL market and giving a 50% BEAR Market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA).  If the S&P is below the 9MMA and the 9MMA line turns down at the end of August, we will have a 100% BEAR market.   In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1094 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned down. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/27 the bogey is 1091, which we are now  below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change in the 8/2/10-8/20/10 50% BULL market was -4.5% The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1116 for the coming week. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. We got an IT SELL signal 8/20/10, resulting in a loss of 1% for the period 8/17/10-8/20/10.. The result for  the IT (new System) for the CY  is -4%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +3.6%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -3.9%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-19-10  The S&P got whacked today, moving lower by 19 to 1076. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). We now have long positions in  Intermediate- and Long-term portfolios. BULL Market (50%) was declared on 8/6/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1089; the IT bogey is at 1056. We are now below the 50DMA, so we have to watch the bogey to see if we must sell out the IT position. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/19/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -899 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  +110  to -22. We dropped a -238 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 8/16/10  for a loss of -0.2%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +3.6%; the S&P is down -3.5% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-18-10  After opening lower, the S&P moved higher by 2 to 1094. We now have long positions in Short-, Intermediate- and Long-term portfolios. BULL Market (50%) was declared on 8/6/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1089; the IT bogey is at 1062. We are now above both, so the IT investment is ok; we can buy the other 50% if the signal maintains for 2 weeks. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +252 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  -161  to +110. We dropped a -1100 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-17-10  The S&P moved smartly higher by 13  to 1093. Intermediate-term (IT) 50% BUY signal today. We now have long positions in Short, IT and Long-term portfolios. BULL Market (50%) was declared on 8/6/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1088; the IT bogey is at 1050. We are now above both; so we can buy with 50% of funds allocated for IT investment. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +658 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  -405  to -161. We dropped a -565 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The IT 50% BUY was recorded on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-16-10  Up and down day, the S&P finally closed up by a fraction  to 1079. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). We are now out of  Intermediate-term positions. BULL Market (50%) was declared on 8/6/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% SELL signal 8/12/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1087; the IT bogey is at 1065. We are below the average; we sold the 50% position we had bought on 8/2/10 for a loss of 1.9%, bring the result for the CY to -3.1%. Makes us glad we instituted the 50% rule for IT purchases on 2/23/10. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +30 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  -344  to -405. We dropped a +337 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P with an ARM signal last Friday combine to give an ARM&FIRE Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-13-10  The S&P closed down by 4  to 1079. We are now out of Short- and Intermediate-term positions. BULL Market (50%) was declared on 8/6/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% SELL signal 8/12/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1087; the IT bogey is at 1103. We are below both; we sold the 50% position we had bought on 8/2/10 for a loss of 1.9%, bring the result for the CY to -3.1%. Makes us glad we instituted the 50% rule for IT purchases on 2/23/10. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -153 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  -371  to -344. We dropped a -287 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA, while the S&P did not turn up, gives an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE Short-term BUY signal). Any upturn in S&P on Monday will complete the buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500, but the 200 DMA continues turned up, thus not changing the 50% BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA).  If the S&P is above the 9MMA and the 9MMA line turns up at the end of August, we will have a 100% bull market.   In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1069 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned up. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/20 the bogey is 1094, which we are now  below. The change in the Long-term System for the BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The change so far in the 8/2/10 BULL market is -3.7% The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1087 for the coming week. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. We got an IT SELL signal 8/12/10. The result for  the IT (new System) for the CY  is -3.1%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +3.8%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -3.2%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-12-10  The S&P fell again, then recovered somewhat, finally closing down by 6  to 1084. Intermediate-term (IT) 50% SELL signal today. We are now out of Short- and Intermediate-term positions. BULL Market (50%) was declared on 8/6/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% SELL signal 8/12/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1088; the IT bogey is at 1098. Since we are below both today, we get an IT SELL signal. We sold the 50% position we had bought on 8/2/10 for a loss of 1.9%, bring the result for the CY to -3.1%. Makes us glad we instituted the 50% rule for IT purchases on 2/23/10. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -238 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  -352  to -371. We dropped a -147 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Friday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 50% IT SELL signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-11-10  The S&P plunged  by 32  to 1089.  We are out of Short-term positions. BULL Market (50%) was declared on 8/6/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/2/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1088; the IT bogey is at 1071; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. After two weeks, if the IT signal is not negated, we will buy the other 50%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1100 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a Short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  -59  to -352. We dropped a +365 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-10-10  The S&P fell by 7  to 1121.  We are out of Short-term positions. BULL Market (50%) was declared on 8/6/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/2/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1088; the IT bogey is at 1089; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. After two weeks, if the IT signal is not negated, we will buy the other 50%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -565 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  -27  to -59. We dropped a -403 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-9-10  The S&P rose by 6  to 1128.  We are out of Short-term positions. BULL Market (50%) was declared on 8/6/10 (see column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/2/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1086; the IT bogey is at 1068; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. After two weeks, if the IT signal is not negated, we will buy the other 50%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +337 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from  +82  to -27. We dropped a +881 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 50% BULL Market signal has been noted on the Market State page. Today was not a short-term RunLite buy signal because the previous bogey of  1127.2 set on 8/4/10 was not exceeded by 1.5 S&P points. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-6-10  The S&P fell by 4  to 1122, but that was enough to give a 50% BULL Market signal today (see weekly paragraph below).  We are out of Short-term positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/2/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1086; the IT bogey is at 1068; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. After two weeks, if the IT signal is not negated, we will buy the other 50%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -287 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +157  to +82. We dropped a +92 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The 50% BULL Market signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed above the 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 and the 200 DMA has turned up, thus giving a 50% BULL market. You may BUY with 50% of funds available for Long-term investments. We are buying the usual ETF's in equal amounts: SPY, QQQQ and IWM. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) also signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA).  If the S&P is above the 9MMA and the 9MMA line turns up at the end of August, we will have a 100% bull market.   In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1036 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned up. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 8/13 the bogey is 1069, which we are now above. The change in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The table below also shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1103 for the coming week. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA is moving up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for the BUY signal of 8/2/10 so far  is -0.9%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +3.8%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +0.6%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-5-10  The S&P was slightly lower all day, closing down by 1 to 1126. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). We are out of Short- and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). If the S&P is above 1112 this Friday, we will have a 50% Bull Market signal. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/2/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1085; the IT bogey is at 1074; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. After two weeks, if the IT signal is not negated, we will buy the other 50%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 8/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -147 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +165  to +157. We dropped a -108 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 8/4/10  for a loss of -0.06%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +3.8%; the S&P is up +1.% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. So the lower threshold of -5 in 5DMA for a BUY signal in Run-5 State stays in place. If we had observed that we would not have bought yesterday (see that column) and saved a small loss. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-4-10  The S&P moved higher today by 7 to 1127. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). We are out of  Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). If the S&P is above 1112 this Friday, we will have a 50% Bull Market signal. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/2/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1084; the IT bogey is at 1073; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. After two weeks, if the IT signal is not negated, we will buy the other 50%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 8/4/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +365 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -2  to +165. We dropped a -469 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. We are going out on a limb here. The 5DMA was at -2 when we got the upturn in S&P and 5DMA today. It is supposed to be below -5 for a Run-5 BUY signal. If this BUY signal works out for a profit, we will have to change the rule to 5DMA=0. as lower threshold. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short sales to the average investor, since the losses can be unlimited if the market advances. The ETFs we  shorted on 7/27/10 were covered today for a loss on the BUY signal.

8-3-10  Up and down all day, the S&P closed lower today by 5 to 1120. We are out of all Short- and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). If the S&P is above 1112 this Friday, we will have a 50% Bull Market signal. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/2/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1083; the IT bogey is at 1087; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. After two weeks, if the IT signal is not negated, we will buy the other 50%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/27/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -403 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +53  to -2. We dropped a -129 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

8-2-10  The S&P rocketed higher today by 24 to 1126. Intermediate-term 50% BUY signal today. The Market State advances to Run-5. We are out of all Short- and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). If the S&P is above 1112 this Friday, we will have a 50% Bull Market signal. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 8/2/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System got a  50% BUY signal 8/2/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1083; the IT bogey is at 1072; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. After two weeks, if the IT signal is not negated, we buy the other 50%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/27/10. The advance of  S&P above the previous bogey of  1115, set on 7/26/10, by more than 1.5 S&P points advances the Market State to Run-5. It also gives a Short-term RunLite BUY signal, but that is ignored by the rule that if we get both Run-5 and RunLite initiated on same day, we ignore the RunLite. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +881 (million shares), with a more than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  +28  to +53. We dropped a +752 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday  due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Market State advances to Run-5. Intermediate-term BUY signal for 50% of assets allocated to IT. The Market State page  has been updated for these changes. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-30-10  The S&P closed up today by a fraction to 1102. We are out of all Short-, Intermediate- and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1082; the IT bogey is at 1115; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/27/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +92 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +359  to +28. We dropped a +681 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of July, and that table shows an increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA).  If the S&P were above the 9MMA and the 9MMA line turns up, we would have a 50% bull market, so we must watch and see if the S&P gets above 1107.2.  In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1080 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned up, but the S&P is not above the 40WMA. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/30 the bogey is 1036, which we are now above. The change in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The table below shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1068 for the coming week. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA turns up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT 50 % BUY signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +3.8%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -1.2%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-29-10  The S&P closed  lower today by 5 to 1102. We are out of all Short-, Intermediate- and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1082; the IT bogey is at 1121; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/27/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -108 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +359  to +145. We dropped a +960 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday  due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-28-10  The S&P closed  lower today by 8 to 1106. We are out of all Short-, Intermediate- and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1082; the IT bogey is at 1137; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/27/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -469 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours]  from  +305  to +359. We dropped a -739 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-27-10  The S&P hovered around the flat line all day, finally closing  lower today by 1 to 1114. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). We are out of all Intermediate and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1083; the IT bogey is at 1136; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/27/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -129 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  +484  to +305. We dropped a +765 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 7/19/10 and 7/22/10  for a gain of +2.4%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +3.8%; the S&P is down -0.1% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since the State is Oscillatory, we can sell short on the sell signal. We do not recommend short sales to the average investor, since the losses can be unlimited if the market advances. We shorted a modest amount of our usual ETF's on the SELL signal.

7-26-10  The S&P moved  higher today by 12 to 1115. We are out of all Intermediate and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1083; the IT bogey is at 1157; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/22/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +752 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  +397  to +484. We dropped a +319 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-23-10  The S&P moved  higher today by 9 to 1103. We are out of all Intermediate and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1084; the IT bogey is at 1172; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/22/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +681 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  -9  to +397. We dropped a -1350 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA).  The S&P is below that 9MMA average line, the 9MMA has turned down, indicating a BEAR Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1088 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned up, indicating a 50% BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/30 the bogey is 1080, which we are now above. The change in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The table below shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1115 for the coming week. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +1.4%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -1.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-22-10  Here we go again, up, down, up, down. The S&P moved smartly higher today by 24 to 1094. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). We are out of all Intermediate and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column for details). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1085; the IT bogey is at 1156; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/22/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +960 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  -205  to -9. We dropped a -20 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is second BUY signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-21-10  Up, down, up, down, which way is it going?  The S&P closed down today by 14 to 1070.  We are out of all Intermediate and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044 on 7/2/10,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1087; the IT bogey is at 1160; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/19/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -739 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from  -100  to -205. We dropped a -211 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today, we were not above the upper threshold of +19 in 5DMA when the downturns in 5DMA and S&P occurred. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-20-10  After being down significantly, the S&P closed up by 12 to 1084.  We are out of all Intermediate and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044 on 7/2/10,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1089; the IT bogey is at 1111; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/19/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +765 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from  -61  to -100. We dropped a +956 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-19-10  The S&P advanced modestly by 6 to 1071. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). We are out of all Intermediate and Long-term positions.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044 on 7/2/10,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1089; the IT bogey is at 1128; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/19/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +319 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -148  to -61. We dropped a -116 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-16-10  The S&P sank by 32 to 1065. That short-term sell signal of 7/14/10 is looking good. We are now out of all positions, short, intermediate and long-term. A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044 on 7/2/10,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1090; the IT bogey is at 1166; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/14/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1350 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +234  to -148. We dropped a +562 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA).  The S&P is below that 9MMA average line, the 9MMA has turned down, indicating a BEAR Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1072 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned down, indicating a 100% BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/23 the bogey is 1088, which we are now below. The change in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The table below shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1172 for the coming week. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +1.4%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -7.3%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-15-10  The S&P closed up 1 to 1096.  A 100% BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (see column). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1092; the IT bogey is at 1173; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. .  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/14/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -20 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +384  to +234. We dropped a +728 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today; the advance in S&P was not enough to trigger a RunLite buy signal, which would have been sterile anyway since we have the rule that when Market State advances to Run-5 (which would have occurred if S&P had closed at 1096.8) and RunLite occur on same day, we ignore the RunLite buy signal.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-14-10  The S&P closed down a fraction to 1095. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). A BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (100%)(see column). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1094; the IT bogey is at 1203; we must be above both to get an IT BUY signal. .  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 7/14/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -211 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +669  to +384. We dropped a +1215 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 6/25/10 and 7/6/10  for a gain of +2.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +1.4%; the S&P is down -4.1% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-13-10  The S&P moved smartly ahead by 17 to 1095. Even though we have sold out all Long-term positions, we are still long for the Short-term System. A BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (100%)(see column). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1096.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/6/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +956 (million shares), with a more than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume, usually indicating a market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  +505  to +669. We dropped a +138 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are above +400 in 5DMA, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-12-10  After moving slightly higher and lower all day, the S&P closed up 1 to 1079. Even though we have sold out all Long-term positions, we are still long for the Short-term System. A BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (100%)(see column). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1098.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/6/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -116 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  +432  to +505. We dropped a -480 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are above +400 in 5DMA, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-9-10  The S&P moved further ahead today by 8 to 1078. Even though we have sold out all Long-term positions, we are still long for the Short-term System. A BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (100%)(see column). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1100.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/6/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +562 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  +274  to +432. We dropped a -232 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are above +400 in 5DMA, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is below that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has turned down, indicating a BEAR Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1025 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned up, indicating a 50% BEAR market. Since we already sold out 100% of long positions, we make no change in our position at this time. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/16 the bogey is 1072, which we are now above. The change in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. The table below shows the Intermediate Term (IT) System important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1166 for the coming week. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is -1.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -3.3%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-8-10  The S&P moved further ahead today by 10 to 1070. Even though we have sold out all Long-term positions, we are still long for the Short-term System. A BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (100%). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. I see that the main stream financial media are again trotting out the old lame rule that a BEAR market is approaching because the market has almost reached the "down 20% from its peak" that they consider the proper rule. The one advantage of that rule is it is easy for the public to understand, the disadvantage is that is is a poor rule that will cost you money. Notice we are down about 12% in the S&P off the peak of 4/26/10 and we have already declared the BEAR market by our rules using the 200 DMA and 40WMA (see following). I once checked the 20% rule against my rules and found 33 instances in the 20th century where the 20% rule was poorer at declaring the BEAR market. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1103.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/6/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +728 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  +1  to +274. We dropped a -637 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-7-10  The S&P stormed ahead by 32 to 1060. A BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (100%). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions. I see that the main stream financial media are again trotting out the old lame rule that a BEAR market is approaching because the market has almost reached the "down 20% from its peak" that they consider the proper rule. The one advantage of that rule is it is easy for the public to understand, the disadvantage is that is is a poor rule that will cost you money. Notice we are down about 16% in the S&P off the peak of 4/26/10 and we have already declared the BEAR market by our rules using the 200 DMA and 40WMA (see following). I once checked the 20% rule against my rules and found 33 instances in the 20th century where the 20% rule was poorer at declaring the BEAR market. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We fell below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1105.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/6/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1215 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -552  to +1. We dropped a -1548 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-6-10  The S&P closed up by 5 to 1028. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). A BEAR MARKET signal was declared on 7/2/10 (100%). You should have sold all Long-term Stock positions (the opening today was the perfect time). I see that the main stream financial media are again trotting out the old lame rule that a BEAR market is approaching because the market has almost reached the "down 20% from its peak" that they consider the proper rule. The one advantage of that rule is it is easy for the public to understand, the disadvantage is that is is a poor rule that will cost you money. Notice we are down about 16% in the S&P off the peak of 4/26/10 and we have already declared the BEAR market by our rules using the 200 DMA and 40WMA (see following). I once checked the 20% rule against my rules and found 33 instances in the 20th century where the 20% rule was poorer at declaring the BEAR market. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We have fallen below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1108.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 7/6/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +138 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -614  to -552. We dropped a -174 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is second buy signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-2-10  The S&P closed down by 5 to 1023. BEAR MARKET signal today (100%). SELL all Long-term Stock positions. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We have fallen below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044,  were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, these three factors giving a 100% BEAR Market signal. I see that the main stream financial media are again trotting out the old lame rule that a BEAR market is approaching because the market has almost reached the "down 20% from its peak" that they consider the proper rule. The one advantage of that rule is it is easy for the public to understand, the disadvantage is that is is a poor rule that will cost you money. Notice we are down about 16% in the S&P off the peak of 4/26/10 and we have already declared the BEAR market by our rules using the 200 DMA and 40WMA (see following). I once checked the 20% rule against my rules and found 33 instances in the 20th century where the 20% rule was poorer at declaring the BEAR market. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1112.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/25/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -480 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  -320  to -614. We dropped a +992 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since we are below -400 in 5DMA, we say the market is over-sold. The 100% BEAR MARKET signal has been noted on the Market State page. You should sell all Long-term positions on a 100% BEAR market signal.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal.   Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of June, and that table shows a decrease in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is below that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA has turned down, indicating a BEAR Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed below the bogey, which is at 1044 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line has turned down, indicating a BEAR market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/9 the bogey is 1025, which we are still below now. The change in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) and ended 7/2/10 was +6.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%, but that was reduced to 6.2% in 2010. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1207 for the coming week. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is -1.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -8.3%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

7-1-10  After being down a lot more, the S&P closed down by 3 to 1027.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We have fallen below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044, but this will give a 100% Bear Market signal only if we are below this number on Friday this week. We were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also on 6/30/10 the nine month MA turned down, giving a 50% BEAR Market signal. We require both the 40 week MA and the 9 mo MA to turn before we get a 100% bear market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1115.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/25/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -232 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -480  to -320. We dropped a -1034 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA, while it was below the lower threshold of -28, while the S&P did not turn up, gives an ARM, first half of ARM&FIRE BUY signal. Any upturn in S&P tomorrow will complete the BUY signal.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-30-10  Up, down, up, down, I guess that's better than 30 points down. The S&P closed down by 11 to 1031. A 50% BEAR Market signal was given today. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page.. We have fallen below the 200 day moving average (MA) bogey at 1044, but this will give a 100% Bear Market signal only if we are below this number on Friday this week. We were already below the 200DMA itself at 1110. Also today the nine month MA turned down. We require both the 40 week MA and the 9 mo MA to turn before we get a 100% bear market signal. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1119.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/25/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1354 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  -379  to -624. We dropped a -129 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-29-10   The S&P plunged by 33 to 1041. Market State falls to Oscillatory (see next paragraph).  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We have fallen below the 200 day moving average bogey at 1044, but this will give a Bear Market signal only if we are below this number on Friday this week. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 6/29/10)- neither strongly up nor down trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1122.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/25/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1548 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down volume to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme.. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  -261  to -379. We dropped a -958 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The drop of S&P below the last buy bogey of 1074 on 6/24/10 drops the State from Run-5 to Oscillatory. This changes the 5DMA thresholds at which buy and sell signals are given. It does not give a sell signal (although we are reviewing this for a possible new rule). The State change has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-28-10   The S&P closed down by 2 to 1075.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1044 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 6/18/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1126.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/25/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -174 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  -254  to -261. We dropped a -139 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-25-10  Up and down all day, I am dizzy. The S&P finally closed up  by 3 to 1077. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1068 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 6/18/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1128.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/25/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +992 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -412  to -254. We dropped a +198 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 but the 200DMA continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1068 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 7/2 the bogey is 1044, which we are still above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +11.8%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, which is 1209 for the coming week. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is -1.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -3.4%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-24-10  The S&P  closed down  by 18 to 1074. We think it is likely the S&P may bottom out about 1068 in the next day or so. That would make a mini-head and shoulders pattern. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1068 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 6/18/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1131.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 6/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1034 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  -254  to -412. We dropped a -241 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-23-10  The S&P was up and down today, finally closing down  by 3 to 1092. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1068 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 6/18/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1133.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 6/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -129 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -287  to -254. We dropped a -297 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in 5DMA, while it was below the lower threshold of -28, while the S&P did not turn up, gives an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE buy) signal. Any upturn in S&P tomorrow will complete the buy signal.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-22-10  The S&P closed down  by 18 to 1095. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1068 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 6/18/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1135.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 6/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10.)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -958 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +118  to -287. We dropped a +1067 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-21-10  The S&P  closed down  by 4 to 1113.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1043 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 6/18/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1138.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 6/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10.)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -139 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +158  to +118. We dropped a +66 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-18-10  The S&P  closed up  by 2 to 1118. Market State rises to Run-5 (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1043 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Run-5 (since 6/18/10)- strongly up trending. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1139.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 6/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +198 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +191  to +158. We dropped a +361 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The rise in S&P above the previous bogey of 1115.2 (previous minor high before last sell signal) by more than 1.5 S&P points, gives a Short-term RunLite BUY signal (but wait). It also raises the Market State from Oscillatory to Run-5. But we have a rule (see Glossary for Run-5) that when State rises from Oscillatory to Run-5 and we get a RunLite BUY signal on the same day, we ignore the RunLite BUY signal. The State change has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise. We covered the short position at a small loss, even though the Buy signal was sterile, since we moved into Run-5 State, where short sales are not allowed.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 but the 200DMA continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1043 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 6/25 the bogey is 1068, which we are still above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +16%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1212. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is -1.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +0.2%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-17-10  The S&P  closed up  by 1 to 1116. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1043 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1141.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 6/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -241 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +494  to +191. We dropped a +1274 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise. With Oscillatory State and Short-term SELL signal we can sell short. A small position of our usual ETF's was sold short today.

6-16-10 Up and down all day, which way is it going? The S&P finally closed down by 1 to 1115. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1043 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1142.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 6/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -297 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +550  to +494. We dropped a -15 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 6/8/10  for a gain of +2.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -1.1%; the S&P is down -0.04% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise. With Oscillatory State and Short-term SELL signal we can sell short. A small position of our usual ETF's was sold short today.

6-15-10 The S&P boomed ahead by 26 to 1115. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). We are now back above the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), and the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1043 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1143.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1067 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  +506  to +550. We dropped a +842 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a small number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-14-10 Another boring day, the S&P fell by 2 to 1090. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1043 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1145.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +66 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  +297  to +506. We dropped a -975 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-11-10 Boring day, the S&P rose by 5 to 1092. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1006 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1147.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +361 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -96  to +297. We dropped a -1606 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 but the 200DMA continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1006 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 6/18 the bogey is 1043, which we are still above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +13.3%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1186. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is -3.6%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -2.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-10-10 The S&P boomed ahead by 31 to 1087. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1006 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1148.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1274 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 of up to down volume, usually indicating a market extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -287  to -96. We dropped a +317 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-9-10 The S&P lost 6 to 1056.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1006 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1150.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -15 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  -41 to -287. We dropped a +1217 from the average from six days ago, giving a  large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. If we had been in PLUNGE State, this would have been a sell signal. We did not go to Plunge State on 5/25/10 when we had the 3rd buy signal in a row, because we are in a BULL market (at least technically). So perhaps this will be the test case that we should count 3 buy signals as Plunge in a Bull market also, we'll know soon. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-8-10 The S&P rose for a change, by 12 to 1062. Short term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1006 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1152.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +843 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from  -451 to -41. We dropped a -1206 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise..We covered our short position established on 6/4/10 on today's BUY signal for a small profit.

6-7-10 The S&P fell another 14 to 1050, failing the support level at 1065-68.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1006 is the bogey for this week), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1154.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 6/4/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -975 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  -446 to -451. We dropped a -953 from the average from six days ago, giving a  positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise. The short term SELL signal in Oscillatory State allows us to sell short. We sold short a modest position of our usual ETF's.

6-4-10 The S&P plunged by 38 to 1065. Short term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1027 is the bogey), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1157.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 6/4/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1606 (million shares), with a ratio of 130:1, down volume to up volume; this is the largest ratio I have ever seen. This usually indicates a market extreme.  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from  +143 to -446. We dropped a +1340 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold.   The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 6/2/10  for a loss of -1.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -3.6%; the S&P is down -4.2% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise. The short term SELL signal in Oscillatory State allows us to sell short. We sold short a modest position of our usual ETF's.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 but the 200DMA continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1027 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 6/11 the bogey is 1006, which we are still above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +10.6%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1168. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is -3.4%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -4.5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

6-3-10 The S&P rose by 4 to 1103. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1027 is the bogey), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1158.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/2/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +317 (million shares).  The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from  +112 to +143. We dropped a +161 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise.

6-2-10 The S&P smoked ahead by 28 to 1098. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1027 is the bogey), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1160.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 6/2/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1217 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume, usually indicating a market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -105 to +112. We dropped a +134 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise.  We covered our short position established on 5/28/10 on today's BUY signal for a small loss.

6-1-10 The S&P fell by 19 to 1071. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA (day moving average), the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1027 is the bogey), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1161.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 5/28/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1206 (million shares), with a more than 10 to 1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +2 to -105. We dropped a -670 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph.  We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise.  The modest position of shorts  of our usual ETF's established on 5/28/10 is doing ok so far.

5-28-10 The S&P fell by 14 to 1089. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA, the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1027 is the bogey), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1165.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 5/28/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -953 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +561 to +2. We dropped a +1840 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 5/10/10  for a loss of -6.1%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -2.%; the S&P is down -2.3% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. Since we finally are in Oscillatory State and we have a Short-term SELL signal, we may now sell short. We do not recommend short selling to the average investor as losses are unlimited if stocks rise.  We shorted a modest position of our usual ETF's on the SELL signal.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 but the 200DMA continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of May, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1026 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 6/4 the bogey is 1027, which we are still above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +13.1%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1166. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is -2%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -2.3%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-27-10  In a strong advance all day, the S&P rocketed ahead by 35 to 1103. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA, the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1026 is the bogey), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1165.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1340 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -120 to +561. We dropped a -2064 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400. we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-26-10  After being up all day, the S&P closed lower by 6 to 1068. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. The 100% BULL market arrived 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA, the 200 DMA has not turned down yet (1026 is the bogey), so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1166.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +161 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -250 to -120. We dropped a -490 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-25-10  The S&P fell lower, then rallied to close up a fraction at 1074. Short-term sterile BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). Although we are below the Long-term 200 DMA, the 200 DMA has not turned down yet, so we still have a Bull market until that turns. We are in Short-term Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1168.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +134 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -515 to -250. We dropped a -1189 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA while the latter was below the lower threshold of -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal, but since we are already 100% invested,  the signal is sterile. Ordinarily three buy signals in a row without a sell signal would give a Market State of Plunge (which changes the 5DMA thresholds at which sell signals are given), but that rule was developed for a BEAR market and we are somewhat shy of a bear market now. So we shall see if we should expand the rule to both bull and bear markets. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-24-10  The S&P tested the previous low, falling  by 14 to 1074.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1169.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -670 (million shares), unusually small for a down day of -14.. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from -423 to -515. We dropped a -212 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400. we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-21-10  The S&P rebounded by 16 to 1088. Sterile Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. The Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT) got a  SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1171.  The loss in the IT (new System) for the BUY-SELL from 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1840 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -1068 to -423. We dropped a -1386 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400. we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. But it is sterile since we are already 100% invested from the buy signal on 5/10/10. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The S&P closed below 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 but the 200DMA continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1004 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 5/28 the bogey is 1026, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +12.9%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1150. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We got an IT SELL signal 5/17/10.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. The result for  the IT (new System) for CY10 so far  is -1.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +4%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -2.5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-20-10  The S&P was down hard all day, finally plunging by 43 to 1072, closing at the low. The Market State falls from Run-5 to Oscillatory since the previous buy signal bogey (S&P 1111 on 5/7/10) was violated without an intervening sell signal. The 200 DMA of the S&P was violated at 1101, but the 200DMA has not turned down, so the Bull market continues. If the S&P gets down to 1004, the bull market will end (number changes every week). The S&P appears to be forming a flag at half-mast. The top of the pole being the 1207 close on 4/29, the bottom of the flag at 1111 on 5/7, the top of the flag at 1172 on 5/12, making the bottom of the pole at 1076, which we are  now below. The market should rally from the bottom of the pole at least up to the 1111 point. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 5/20/10)-neither strongly up or down. New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1172.  The loss in the IT (new System) BUY-SELL on 3/1/10 to 5/17/10 was -0.1%. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. (We've been running these last 2 sentences since 2/3/10)

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -2064 (million shares), with a more than 70:1 ratio of  down to up volume-I've never seen that number that high-hopefully this indicates a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -794 to -1068. We dropped a -692 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday-Thursday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400. we say the market is over-sold. The Market State page has been updated for the State change to Oscillatory.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-19-10  The S&P rose and  fell all day around the critical 1111 point, finally closing down by 6 to 1115.  This is the test of the 5/7/10 low. A move up from here would be short-term bullish. A violation of the 1111 S&P of 5/7 would be bearish short-term. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/10-this is given as 2009 in previous paragraphs-typo)-expecting this to change shortly.  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1174.  The change in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is -0.1%.We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -490 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -511 to -794. We dropped a +927 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Wednesday next due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400. we say the market is over-sold. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-18-10  The S&P rose, then fell by 16  to 1121. Is this the test of the 5/7/10 low? A move up from here would say yes. A violation of the 1111 S&P of 5/7 would be bearish short-term. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09)-expecting this to change shortly.  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1174. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value (which we have) AND below  the bogey of  1139 (seen 5/17/2010), which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down).  The change in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is -0.1%.We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1189 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -495 to -511. We dropped a -1111 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400. we say the market is over-sold. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-17-10  The S&P fell again, then closed up by 1  to 1137; let's hope we get some bit of rally now. IT SELL signal today (see following). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09)-expecting this to change shortly.  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 5/17/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1174. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value (which we have) AND below  the bogey of  1139 (seen today), which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down).  The change in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is -0.1%.We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -212 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from -106 to -495. We dropped a +1733 from the average from six days ago, giving a large negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400. we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Friday's revised 5DMA shows an uptick, which would be a ARM signal, which would be completed by todays FIRE uptick in S&P. But since we ordinarily dont act on overnight revisions, we are going to say this is not a buy signal. We may get an overnight 5DMA revision tomorrow that gives us a buy signal for today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-14-10  The S&P fell another 22  to 1136. I hope this is not the extent of the rally from the last Thursday's debacle. We do not have a sell signal from the system. If a few days from now and we do not see a new minor high, then this will be a serious bearish condition (even if we do not get a change to a BEAR market in the System). If we rally from this vicinity, it will strongly bullish short-term. If the previous low of 1111 from 5/7 is breached, it will be a serious downtrend. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09)-expecting this to change shortly.  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1175. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value (which we have) AND below  the bogey of  1123, which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down). The latter has not been breached so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1386 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose [after hours] from -166 to -106. We dropped a -1688 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 1011 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 5/21 the bogey is 1004, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +17.9%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1123. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The change in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is -0.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +4%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +1.9%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-13-10  The S&P fell back by 14  to 1157. I hope this is not the extent of the rally from the last Thursday's debacle. We do not have a sell signal from the system. If a few days from now and we do not see a new minor high, then this will be a serious bearish condition (even if we do not get a change to a BEAR market in the System). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09)-expecting this to change shortly.  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1174. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value (which we have) AND below  the bogey of  1118.3, which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down). The latter has not been breached so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -692 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from -498 to -166. We dropped a -2353 from the average from six days ago, giving a huge positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in 5DMA while the S&P did not turn up, gives an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE BUY signal). Any upturn tomorrow in S&P will complete the buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-12-10  The S&P advanced smartly by 16  to 1172. We are approaching the 50 DMA at 1175 where I think we can see some resistance to further advance and may get a sell signal. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09)-expecting this to change shortly.  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1173, so the IT up trend continues. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value (which we have) AND below  the bogey of  1118.3, which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +927 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from -849 to -498. We dropped a -824 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-11-10  The S&P fell by 4  to 1156.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09)-expecting this to change shortly.  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1172, so the IT up trend continues. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value (which we have) AND below  the bogey of  1115.7, which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1111 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from -893 to -849. We dropped a -1334 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-10-10  The S&P rebounded by 49 to 1160. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09)-expecting this to change shortly.  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1172, so the IT up trend continues. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value (which we have) AND below  the bogey of  1104.4, which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down). We had a Short-term System BUY signal 5/10/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1733 (million shares), with a greater than 10:1 ratio of up to down volume. . The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  rose from -1110 to -893. We dropped a +649 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-7-10  The S&P was down again by 17 to 1111.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09)-expecting this to change shortly.  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1171, so the IT up trend continues. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value (which we have) AND below  the bogey of  1102.9, which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/30/10 (and are we glad for that!). We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1688 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from -1002 to -1110. We dropped a -1149 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 988 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 5/14 the bogey is 1011, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +15.3%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1102.9. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The change in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is -2.3%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +4%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -0.4%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-6-10  Wow, I am breathless. After falling about 100 points (!), the S&P was down again by 38 to 1128.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1170, so the IT up trend continues. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value (which we have) AND below  the bogey of  1105.2, which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/30/10 (and are we glad for that!). We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -2353 (million shares), with a more than 20:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from -365 to -1002. We dropped a +831 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-5-10   The S&P was down again by 8 to 1166. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1170, so the IT up trend continues. To get an IT sell signal we need the S&P to fall below the latter value AND below  the bogey of  1094.6, which was the S&P value 51 days ago (this means the 50 DMA turns down). We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/30/10 (and are we glad for that!). We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -824 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV  fell from -74 to -365. We dropped a +632 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-4-10  The S&P fell like a stone, down  by 29 to 1174. This confirms the declining tops previously mentioned; the previous top at 1217 on 4/23/10 and the second at 1207 on 4/29/10. This decline from here  confirms the short-term downtrend, it could extend to the Intermediate term if it closes below 1168. Glad we had the Whipsaw rule to avoid buying yesterday. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1168, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/30/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1334 (million shares), with a more than 10:1 ratio of down to up volume, usually indicating a short-term market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV actually rose from -106 to -74. We dropped a -1492 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in 5DMA, while the S&P did not rise, gives an ARM signal (first half of ARM&FIRE BUY signal). Any rise in S&P tomorrow will complete the Short-term BUY signal.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

5-3-10  The S&P was up by 16 to 1202. We could be seeing declining tops in the S&P (somewhat bearish); the previous top at 1217 on 4/23/10 and the second at 1207 on 4/29/10. If the S&P closes below 1184 (close on 4/27/10), this would confirm a bearish short-term trend). Also a decline from here would tend to confirm the short-term downtrend. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1167, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/30/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +649 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -292 to -106. We dropped a -280 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA must be ignored as a buy signal because Friday's SELL signal makes today's signal a whipsaw. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-30-10  The S&P reversed, down by 20 to 1187. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). We could be seeing declining tops in the S&P (somewhat bearish); the previous top at 1217 on 4/23/10 and the second at 1207 on 4/29/10. If the S&P closes below 1184 (close on 4/27/10), this would confirm a bearish short-term trend). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1165, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/30/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1149 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +16 to -292. We dropped a +389 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 4/28/10  for a loss of -0.4%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +4.%; the S&P is up 6.4% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of April, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 979 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 5/7 the bogey is 988, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +23.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1106.6. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT BUY signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned up. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is +4.2%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +4%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +6.4%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-29-10  The S&P was up again, by 15 to 1207. Short-term BUY signal yesterday is looking good. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1164, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/28/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +831 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -103 to +16. We dropped a +239 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-28-10  The S&P rebounded nicely, up 8 to 1191. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1162, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/28/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +632 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -261 to -103. We dropped a -162 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-27-10  The S&P closed down hard by 28 to 1184. I'm glad yesterday's short-term sell signal got us out. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1160, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1492 (million shares), with the ratio of down to up volume much greater than 10:1, which usually indicates a market extreme. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +182 to -261. We dropped a +724 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-26-10  The S&P closed down 5 to 1212. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1157., so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -280 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +269 to +182. We dropped a +153 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 4/20/10  for a gain of 0.4%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +4.4%; the S&P is up 8.9% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-23-10  The S&P closed up 7 to 1216. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1155, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/20/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +389 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -106 to +269. We dropped a -1487 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of March, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 940 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 4/30 the bogey is 979, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +25.4%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1068.1. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT BUY signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned up. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is +6.9%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +4%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +8.3%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-22-10  After being down today, the S&P closed up 3 to 1209. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1152, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/20/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +239 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -192 to -106. We dropped a -191 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-21-10  The S&P lost 1 to 1206. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1149, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/20/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -162 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -13 to -192. We dropped a +736 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today, was not a sell signal because 5DMA was not above upper threshold of +2.5 on the downturn.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-20-10  The S&P  gained 10 to 1207. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1146, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/20/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +724 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -237 to -13. We dropped a -398 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-19-10  The S&P managed a gain of 5 to 1198.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1143, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +153 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV ]fell [after hours] from -213 to -237. We dropped a +272 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The rise in S&P and 5DMA would ordinarily give a short-term buy signal, but since Friday was a SELL signal, today's signal is a whipsaw, so we ignore it under the whipsaw rule.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-16-10  The S&P plunged 20 to 1192. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1141, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -1487 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +166 to -213. We dropped a +409 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 4/9/10  for a gain of 0.3%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +4%; the S&P is up 6.9% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of March, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 879 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 4/23 the bogey is 940, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +23.7%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1068.1. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT BUY signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned up. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is +4.7%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +4%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +6.9%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-15-10  The S&P rose by 1 to 1212. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1139, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/9/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -191 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +256 to +166. We dropped a +263 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-14-10  The S&P rose strongly by 13 to 1211. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1136, so the IT up trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/9/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +736 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +54 to +256. We dropped a -277 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-13-10  After a day of up and down around zero, the S&P rose by 1 to 1197. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1134, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/9/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -398 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +183 to +54. We dropped a +246 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while it was above +2.5, and while the S&P did not decline, gives an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL) signal. Any decline in S&P tomorrow will complete the Short-term SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-12-10  The S&P rose today by 2 to 1196. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1132, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/9/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +272 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +244 to +183. We dropped a +580 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-9-10  The S&P rose today by 8 to 1194. Short-term RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1129, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/9/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +409 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +292 to +244. We dropped a +649 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The advance in S&P above the previous minor high of 1189.4 on 4/6/10 by more than 1.5 points give a RunLite BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of March, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 900 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 4/16 the bogey is 879, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +24%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1116.5. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT BUY signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned up. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is +4.9%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +3.8%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +7.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-8-10  The S&P rose today by 4 to 1186.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1127, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/7/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +263 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   rose from +170 to +292. We dropped a -348 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-7-10  The S&P finally fell today, by 7 to 1182. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1126, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 4/7/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -277 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell from +195 to +170. We dropped a -150 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and the 5DMA, while the latter was above the upper threshold of +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 4/1/10  for a gain of 0.4%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +3.8%; the S&P is up 6% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-6-10  The S&P advanced today by 2 to 1189, to a new 18 month high.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1124, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/1/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +246 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell from +209 to +195. We dropped a +315 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while it was above +2.5, while the S&P did not decline, gives an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL) signal. Any decline tomorrow in S&P will complete the Short-term SELL signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-5-10  The S&P advanced today by 9 to 1187, to a new 18 month high.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1122, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/1/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +580 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   rose from +132 to +209. We dropped a +193 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

4-1-10  The S&P advanced strongly at the open but then drifted lower all day, finally closing up by 8 to 1177, at a new 18 month high. RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1120, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 4/1/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +649 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   rose from -31 to +132. We dropped a -165 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The advance in S&P above the previous minor high of 1173.3 on 3/30/10 by more than 1.5 points give a RunLite BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of March, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 918.9 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 4/9 the bogey is 900, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +22.3%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1116.5. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT BUY signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned up. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/16/09 is +1.6%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +3.0%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +5.7%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-31-10  The S&P fell by 4 to 1169. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1120, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/31/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -348 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV   fell from +7 to -31. We dropped a -157 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +2.5, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 3/26/10  for a gain of 0.2%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +3.4%; the S&P is up 4.9% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-30-10  The S&P closed up by a tiny fraction to 1173.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1119, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 3/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -150 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  fell +145 to +7. We dropped a +538 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The decline in 5DMA, while it was above +2.5, while the S&P did not decline, gives an ARM (first half of ARM&FIRE SELL) signal. Any decline in S&P tomorrow will complete the sell signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-29-10  The S&P closed up by 7 to 1173.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1118.5, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 3/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +315 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +168 to +145. We dropped a +429 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-26-10  The S&P closed up by 1 to 1167. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1118, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/24/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +193 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -70 to +168. We dropped a -997 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 921.2 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 4/2 the bogey is 919, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +21.1%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1145.7. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT BUY signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned up. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/16/09 is +0.6%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +3.0%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +4.6%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-25-10  After being ahead strongly to a new 18 month high, the S&P closed down by 2 to 1166. That's called a top reversal. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1118, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/24/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -165 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -90 to -70. We dropped a -264 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-24-10  The S&P fell by 6 to 1168. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1117, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/24/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -157 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +7 to -90. We dropped a +327 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. With the decline in S&P and in 5DMA while it was above +2.5, we get a SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 3/22/10  for a gain of 0.2%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +3.2%; the S&P is up 4.7% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-23-10  The S&P  advanced by 8 to 1174. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1117, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 3/22/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +538 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +32 to +7. We dropped a +665 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-22-10  The S&P  advanced by  6 to 1166. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1116, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 3/22/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +429 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -88 to +32. We dropped a -173 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Clean), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-19-10  The S&P fell by  6 to 1160. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1115, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -997 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from 82 to -88. We dropped a -144 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-18-10  The S&P fell by a fraction to 1166.  What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1116, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -997 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from 82 to -88. We dropped a -144 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-17-10  The S&P  advanced again by  7 to 1166. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1114, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 3/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1288 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +270 to +412. We dropped a +580 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-16-10  The S&P moved ahead into new high ground (for last 18 mo) by advancing 9 to 1160. Short-term RunLite BUY signal and completion of 100% Intermediate-term BUY signal today (see following). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 100% BUY signal 3/16/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1114, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 3/16/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +2523 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +193 to +270. We dropped a +282 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The advance in S&P above the previous minor high of 1150.2 on 3/11/10 by more than 1.5 points give a RunLite BUY signal. The aforementioned IT 100% BUY signal changed the IT Downtrend flag to False, so the Long Purchase State (LPS) becomes Clean and we can buy with 100% of available funds for Short-term purchases. We bought with 100% of available funds for equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signals and LPS have been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-15-10   Down mostly all day, the S&P finally rose by a fraction to 1150. What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column).  We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1113, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -173 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +250 to +193. We dropped a +111 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Thursday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-12-10  Up, down and around, going nowhere at the top. Are we getting a double top? We sure are over-bought. The S&P fell by a fraction to 1150. Sterile Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph).. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1112, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -144 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +457 to +250. We dropped a +892 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Thursday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. If we had observed the RunLite BUY signal on 3/9/10, we would have a profit of 2.4%, so the signal was good after all (see 3/9 column). Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 940 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 3/19 the bogey is 946, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +19.4%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1128. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT BUY signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned up. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is +3%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term  System result to date for CY10 is +3.0%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +3.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-11-10  The S&P rose again by 5 to 1150. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1112, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +422 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +420 to +457. We dropped a +235 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Thursday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-10-10  The S&P rose again by 5 to 1146. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1112, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +580 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +323 to +420. We dropped a +97 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Wednesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-9-10  The S&P rose by 2 to 1141. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1111, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +282 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours] from +328 to +323. We dropped a +306 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Tuesday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. We actually got a RunLite BUY signal by the slimmest of margins, but I am going to ignore it. For the signal, the S&P needed to exceed to previous bogey (minor high before last sell signal, which was 1138.7 on 3/5/10) by 1.5 S&P points. So 1.5+1138.7=1140.2, and todays close was 1140.5. If the ignored buy signal turns out to be profitable, we will be sorry for ignoring the signal, but if it turns out not profitable, then we will increase the margin from 1.5 S&P points to 2. The 1.5 was developed over 10 years ago when market values were MUCH lower, so by a logarithmic analysis we should change these margins as the market climbs; but we have taken another approach, that the market will tell us when the margins need to be changed. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-8-10  The S&P fell by a fraction to 1139. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1111, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 3/8/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +111 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from +427 to +328. We dropped a +604 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. With the decline in S&P and in 5DMA while it was above +2.5, we get a SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 2/26/10  for a gain of 3.1%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to +3%; the S&P is up 2.1% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-5-10   The S&P rocketed ahead by 16 to 1139. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1110, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +892 (million shares), with the ratio of up to down volume greater than 10 to 1, usually indicating a short-term top is very close. The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +296 to +427. We dropped a +237 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Friday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought.  No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 919 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 3/12 the bogey is 940, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +18.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1114. When we are above the bogey, the 50DMA continues up; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns up and the S&P advances through the 50DMA, we have an IT BUY signal. We had an IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned up. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 3/1/09 is +2.1%.  The increase in the IT  for the BUY/SELL on 4/13/09-1/22/10 was 27.1%. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we got a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal; then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is +2.1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-4-10  The S&P hung around up one all day, finally closing up by 4 to 1123.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at S&P 1110, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +235 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from +241 to +296. We dropped a -39 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday-Thursday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-3-10  The S&P was up by a fraction to 1119.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at 1109, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +97 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +326 to +241. We dropped a +522 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-2-10  The S&P was up by 3 to 1118.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at 1109, so the IT trend continues. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +306 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +105 to +326. We dropped a -798 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

3-1-10  The S&P advanced smartly today by 11 to 1116. Intermediate Term 50% BUY signal today.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT 50% BUY signal 3/1/10. The IT 50DMA (50 day moving average) is at 1109 and the IT bogey is at 1108, both of which were exceeded today, so we can BUY with 50% of available funds for IT equities. When we exceed the bogey (the S&P value 51 days back) that means the 50 DMA turns up. When we exceed the 50DMA and it turns up, we get a 50% BUY signal. the other 50% will come when the IT remains in effect for 2 weeks and the next Short-term BUY signal occurs. We bought with 50% of available funds for IT equities, equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +604 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -17 to +105. We dropped a -5 from the average from six days ago, giving a neutral bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The IT 50% Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-26-10  Down, up, down, up, the S&P roller coaster closed up today by 2 to 1104. Short Term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 2/23/10. The IT 50DMA is at 1109, so we can not have an IT BUY signal until we exceed that. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/26/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +237 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -27 to -17. We dropped a +182 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a neutral bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a tiny number from the 5DMA from six days prior. The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -5, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms. A new paragraph on the IT System has been added to the Glossary.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week/End-of-Month Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of February, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 887 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 3/5 the bogey is 919, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +14.6%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System.  For that we look at the bogey, now at 1114. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. We had an IT sell signal 1/22/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned down. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 was 27.1%; this became the booked result for the IT round trip. We also had an IT BUY and SELL  on 2/18 and 2/23 for a slight loss. From this trade we get a rule change that we invest only 50% of available funds for IT on the first IT BUY signal, then if the IT trend maintains for 2 weeks, we buy the other 50% upon the occurrence of the next Short-term BUY signal.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -1%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-25-10  Down, up, down, the S&P roller coaster closed down today by 2 to 1103. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 2/23/10. The IT 50DMA is at 1109, so we can not have an IT BUY signal until we exceed that. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -182 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +75 to -56. We dropped a +474 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. It is not a Short-term SELL signal since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-24-10  Almost a mirror image of yesterday, the S&P closed up by 11 to 1105. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 2/23/10. The IT 50DMA is at 1109, so we can not have an IT BUY signal until we exceed that. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +522 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +40 to +75. We dropped a +348 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Thursday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. It is not a Short-term BUY signal since we were not below the lower 5DMA threshold of -5 when the upturn in S&P and 5DMA occurred. And the last Short-term sell bogey was 1109 on 2/19, so we did not exceed that for a RunLite buy signal. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-23-10  The S&P closed down by 13 to 1095. Intermediate Term (IT) SELL  signal today (see following). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 2/22/10. The IT 50DMA is at 1107, so we are below that. The 50DMA bogey at at 1096, which we closed below also. This constitutes an IT SELL signal. Since the BUY and SELL both occurred within a 5 trading days period, I think we need a rule that on IT BUY signal we commit only 50% of funds for IT; then upon completion of a 2 week probational period, we commit the other 50% upon the next Short-term BUY signal. This will save something over the loss we experienced on this round trip. We lost 1% on this round trip, bringing the IT result for the CY to -1%. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -798 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +375 to +40. We dropped a +877 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. It is not a Short-term SELL since we have no positions on. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-22-10  The S&P closed down by 1 to 1108. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT BUY signal 2/19/10. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -5 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +355 to +375. We dropped a -108 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday-Monday next due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-19-10 The market teased us again with the Intermediate Term (IT) BUY signal.  The S&P closed up by 2 to 1109. This was enough to give an IT BUY signal  (see following). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT BUY signal 2/19/10. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1107 and the bogey is at 1103. We exceeded the bogey yesterday, which means the 50 DMA turned up. Now the S&P has exceeded the 50DMA of 1107, so we get the BUY signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +182 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +442 to +355. We dropped a +619 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Monday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. IT BUY signal today see above. The Market State page has been updated for the BUY. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of January, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 883 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 2/26 the bogey is 887, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +15.2%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. We had an IT sell signal 1/22/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned down. For that we look at the bogey, now at 1103. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 was 27.1%; this became the booked result for the IT round trip.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -0.5%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-18-10 The S&P closed up by 7 to 1107. At the close the S&P hovered at the doorstep of an Intermediate Term BUY signal (see following). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1108 and the bogey is at 1106. We exceeded the bogey, which means the 50 DMA has turned up but the S&P did not cross the 50DMA line which is at 1108. So we are about one point away from an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +1494 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +326 to +442. We dropped a -109 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-17-10 The S&P was up modestly all day, closing up by  5 to 1100.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1108, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +348 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell [after hours]  from +424 to +326. We dropped a +839 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-16-10 The S&P was up strongly by  19 to 1095. Market State advances to Run-5; also a sterile RunLite BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Run-5 (since 2/16/09) (strongly up trending short-term).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1108, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +877 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from +128 to +424. We dropped a -600 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Wednesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is above +400, we say the market is over-bought. Since the S&P exceeded the previous bogey (minor high before last sell signal) of 1078.5 on 2/11/10 by more than 1.5 S&P points, the Market State advances to Run-5, and we get a RunLite BUY signal, but it is sterile (we do not act on t) because we have a rule that when State changes from Oscillatory to Run-5 and we get a RunLite BUY signal on the same day, we ignore the buy signal.  The Market State page  has been updated for the Run-5. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We dont recommend selling short for the average investor. Upon the advance in State to Run-5, we cover the short sales of SPY, QQQQ and IWM we made yesterday for a modest loss. .

2-12-10 The S&P was down by 3 to 1076. Short-term SELL signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1109, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System SELL signal 2/12/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators. In particular, here are two of them:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/188462-the-coming-pan-european-sovereign-debt-crisis-which-country-to-short?source=email and

http://seekingalpha.com/article/188482-sovereign-default-stuck-between-dire-and-disastrous?source=email

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -108 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell  from +174 to +128. We dropped a +120 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The downturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was above +19, gives a Short-term SELL signal. We sold the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we bought on 2/5/10, 2/9/10 and 2/11/10  for a gain of 0.5%, bringing the Short-term system result for the year to -0.1%; the S&P is down 3.6% for the CY. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Market State page  has been updated for the SELL.   Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We dont recommend selling short for the average investor. In Oscillatory State on today's SELL signal we may sell short. We shorted a modest amount of SPY, QQQQ and IWM.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of January, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 929 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 2/19 the bogey is 883, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +11.6%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. We had an IT sell signal 1/22/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned down. For that we look at the bogey, now at 1109. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down; the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 was 27.1%; this became the booked result for the IT round trip.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.1%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -3.6%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-11-10 Down then up again. The S&P was finally up by 10 to 1078. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1109, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/11/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +2331 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose  from -230 to +516. We dropped a -1399 from the average from six days ago, giving a large positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Friday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 12% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the third buy signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page. We had 3 buy signals in a row ending 2/1/10 also. At that time we commented that we would watch and see if the Bear market call of PLUNGE state was warranted for the 3 signals, and we decided it was not warranted, the PLUNGE state remains a creature of the BEAR market only. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-10-10 Up and down again. The S&P was finally down by 2 to 1068.  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is DOWN. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1110, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/9/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The  on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -109 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose [after hours] from -310 to -230. We dropped a -513 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior. No signals today. Despite the downturn in S&P and 5DMA, it was not a sell signal since the 5DMA was not above the upper threshold of +19.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-9-10 Up strong, relax, up strong, relax, another roller coaster. The S&P was up by 14 to 1071. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph).  THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is down. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1111, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/9/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +839 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -321 to -310. We dropped a +786 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a positive bias to the 5DMA Wednesday-Thursday due to dropping a negative number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 25% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty and this is the second buy signal in a row), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-8-10   The S&P was down by 9 to 1057. THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is down. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1106, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The early reading on the on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was -600 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV fell from -40 to -321. We dropped a +808 from the average from six days ago, giving a negative bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior. Since the 5DMA is below -400, we say the market is over-sold. No signals today. Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

2-5-10  What a ride! The S&P was down hard again, then recovered nicely, finally up by 3 to 1066. Bottom reversal-- goes down more, then closes up. Short-term BUY signal today (see next paragraph). THE 100% BULL MARKET ARRIVED 7/31/09 (see 7/31 column). What is this market doing? The answer is on the Market State page. We are in Market State Oscillatory (since 1/28/09) (neither strongly up nor down).  New formula for Intermediate-Term (IT) System (see 12/11/09 column on IT). IT SELL signal 1/22/10; the path of least resistance of the market is down. The IT 50 Day Moving Average is at S&P 1112, so we need to get above that S&P value to see an IT buy signal. We had a Short-term System BUY signal 2/5/10. We never comment on economic or market fundamentals, but to make a brief exception, every day we see dozens of articles that the near future (say 6 mo) of the economy will be much worse than is generally thought for many reasons. I recommend the site: seekingalpha.com for a source of the latest views of dozens of such commentators.

The on-balance volume (OBV)(note 2) today  was +120 (million shares). The 5 day moving average (5DMA)(note 1) of the OBV rose from -180 to -40. We dropped a -580 from the average from six days ago, giving a positive bias to the 5DMA today. We will have a negative bias to the 5DMA Monday-Tuesday due to dropping a positive number from the 5DMA from six days prior.  The upturn in S&P and 5DMA, while the latter was below -28, gives a Short-term BUY signal. We bought with 50% of available funds for equities (since Long Purchase State is Dirty), equal amounts of SPY, QQQQ and IWM. Please see  ETF page  for meaning of these symbols. The Buy signal has been noted on the Market State page.  Please see Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.

Short-sellers paragraph. We dont recommend selling short for the average investor. On today's BUY signal we covered the SPY, QQQQ and IWM we sold short on 2/3/10, for a nice profit of 2.8%. We dont keep track of short results on the site.

Intermediate/Long-Term Investors End-of-Week Update. The 200DMA (200 day moving average)(calculated as a 40 week moving average (40WMA)-Friday closes) of the S&P500 continues climbing; indicating a  BULL market. The situation may be seen in the table below. When the 40WMA signals, we get a 50% signal, when the nine month moving average (9MMA) signals, we get a 100% signal. When we got the early-warning 50% signal on 7/17/09, we bought with 50% of available funds for Long-term purposes.  Table 2 of the Long-term Investor's page has been updated for the month of January, and that table shows a increase in the nine month moving average (9MMA). The S&P is above that 9MMA average line, and the 9MMA continues up, indicating a 100% BULL Market. In our Long-term BULL Bogey table below are the S&P values (based on the 40WMA) that indicate a BULL market; they change week-by-week. The S&P closed above the bogey, which is at 878 (see table below for today's date) and the 200DMA (40WMA) line continues up, indicating a BULL market. In the table below you can see that for the coming week of 2/12 the bogey is 929, which we are considerably above now. The change to date in the Long-term System for the new BULL market, which started on 7/17/09 (50%) and 7/31/09 (50%) is +10.7%, using S&P as the basis. The Long-term System gain for the year 2009 was 15.8%. We have changed (11/14/09) the IT System to the 50 Day Moving Average (DMA), rather than the Uptrending and Downtrending chart line. The IT buy and sell signals from the upturn and downturn in 50DMA will be similar to the Long term 200DMA System.. The table below shows the IT important figures on a weekly basis (we will watch this daily to see when action should be taken). The bogey is the price being dropped from the 50 day average (the 51st value back)  When we look ahead to the next value we can see how close we are to an important change coming in the IT System. We had an IT sell signal 1/22/10; we penetrated the 50DMA and it has turned down. For that we look at the bogey, now at 1106. When we are below the bogey, the 50DMA continues down, the bogey changes every day. When the 50DMA turns down and the S&P declines through the 50DMA, we have an IT SELL signal. The increase in the IT (new System) since the BUY on 4/13/09 was 27.1%; this became the booked result for the IT round trip.  The booked Short-term System result for CY09 was +29.7%. The S&P gain was +23.5% for CY09. The booked Short-term System result to date for CY10 is -0.6%. The S&P result to date for CY10 is -4.3%. See Glossary  for any unfamiliar terms.